The Pacific El Nino phenomenon is intensifying and could become one of the strongest on record, meteorologists report.

What happened. According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) published on September 14, 2026, water warming in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean has exceeded the 2°C threshold—a phenomenon informally known as a "super El Nino." The event began to form in June 2026; it is expected to peak in early 2027 and is forecast to persist through the spring of 2027.

Precipitation: where it will increase and where it will decrease.

East Africa is bracing for heavier rainfall between October and December; there is a 90% probability of above-average precipitation in southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, and northeastern Kenya, bringing a risk of flooding. Increased precipitation is also expected in South America—along the Pacific coast of Ecuador and northern Peru in early 2027, and subsequently in southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northeastern Argentina.

At the same time, a number of regions will face drought.

Monsoon rainfall in India has been 15% below average. A high risk of forest fires has been recorded in Indonesia, with the country's meteorological service already counting over 5000 fire hotspots, primarily on Sumatra and Kalimantan. Below-average precipitation is also expected in southern and eastern Australia and across much of Southern Africa.

Threat to food security.

The UN World Food Programme warns that, due to El Niño, the number of people facing acute hunger could rise by nearly 49 million by the end of 2027—climbing from 225 million to 274 million across the 45 countries surveyed. The sharpest increases are expected in East and Southern Africa, as well as in Latin America. Crops such as maize, rice, and other rain-dependent varieties are at risk.

Temperature record in question.

El Nino traditionally drives up global temperatures, most notably in the year following its onset. The World Meteorological Organization estimates an 86% probability that at least one year before 2030 will surpass the record-breaking 2024 in terms of heat.

Other consequences.

The phenomenon is expected to significantly dampen the Atlantic hurricane season; according to NOAA’s August forecast, there is a 75% probability of a below-normal season. In North America, a southward shift of the jet stream typically results in less snowfall around the Great Lakes, in New England, in the Pacific Northwest, and in western Canada, but more snowfall across the southern United States. The impact on Europe is less clear-cut: the British meteorological service expects a wetter and stormier autumn in the northwest of the continent, whereas a number of other forecasts link the phenomenon to colder weather in Northern Europe.

Meteorologists emphasize that no two El Nino events are alike, and the intensity of the phenomenon does not guarantee a proportional scale of consequences in a specific region—much also depends on the state of the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.